Models · branch
The simulation argument
Pong to photoreal. Bostrom’s trilemma next door.
This hangs on Games as models, Computation.
See on the treeNick Bostrom, 2003: at least one of three is true: almost no civilization reaches the posthuman stage that can run ancestor simulations; almost no such civilization runs many of them; or we are almost certainly in one. That is a trilemma, not a vibe.
Elon’s 2016 Code Conference version is a different argument with the same destination. Forty years from Pong to photoreal MMO. Any remaining rate of improvement, even a thousand times slower, still gets you indistinguishability on evolutionary timescales. Billions of such machines. Therefore the odds that this is base reality are one in billions. He asks for the flaw.
Possible flaws, held honestly: simulations may be detectable; consciousness may not be computable; most simulated worlds may not look like this; the reference class may be wrong. The sister world Are We in a Simulation? walks the Pong grammar as an experience and leaves the question open. So does this node.
Forty years ago we had Pong. Like, two rectangles and a dot. That was what games were. Now, 40 years later, we have photorealistic, 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously, and it’s getting better every year.
It would seem to follow that the odds that we’re in base reality is one in billions. Tell me what’s wrong with that argument.
Arguably we should hope that that’s true, because if civilization stops advancing, that may be due to some calamitous event that erases civilization.
The Pong argument, spoken. Two rectangles and a dot become photoreal 3D with millions of simultaneous players. Any remaining improvement makes games indistinguishable from reality. Therefore the odds we are in base reality are one in billions. He asks what the flaw is.
Hangs on The simulation argument
Hangs on
What hangs from here
Sister worlds
- Are We in a Simulation?. The same argument, walked as a cinematic sequence rather than a tree.
Sources
- Bostrom, Nick. “Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?” Philosophical Quarterly 53, no. 211 (2003): 243-255.
- Musk, Elon. Interview by Kara Swisher. Code Conference. Recode, June 2, 2016. Video, 3:43 (short cut).
- The Verge. “Odds are we’re living in a simulation, says Elon Musk.” June 2, 2016.
- Are We in a Simulation? The Constellation. 2026.